New Delhi: The BJP’s choice of Mohan Yadav as Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh might have come as a surprise to all and sundry but the decision, which had a stamp of approval from no other than Prime Minister Narendra Modi, came not as a move made in a hurry but keeping in mind Bihar elections in mind.
It was a hard and possibly toughest choice for the BJP to ignore Shivraj Singh Chouhan, Madhya Pradesh’s as well the longest serving BJP CM in any state ruled by the party.
Chouhan leaves a legacy of a party loyalist who transformed MP from a BIMARU state to one with a GDP of Rs 13,22,000. He was at the helm for sixteen and half years spanning four terms in the top post. Besides, Chouhan was a five-time MP.
According to poll analyst Jagdeep Singh Bais, the BJP’s decision to pick up three totally unknown faces speaks volumes of its long term plans.
“Three unexpected party men in three winning states can be a gambling for the BJP but the party has a reason to justify the decision. The decisions had the stamp of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who must have set his eyes on 2024 Lok Sabha polls. Clearly, the faces have been selected keeping the Lok Sabha elections in mind. Mohan Yadav became the Chief Minister of Madhya Pradesh keeping in mind potential Yadav support base in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. This decision is an attempt by the BJP to weaken the SP and BSP vote bank in Uttar Pradesh and JD(U) and RJD vote bank in Bihar,” Bais said.
When BJP announced Mohan Yadav as the Chief Minister, keeping aside all the conjectures, thee was pervading silence among Chouhan’s followers. Despite the presence of many veterans, relatively less experienced Yadav was chosen for the hot seat.
According to poll analysts, the decision is a well thought out one with an eye on 2014 Lok Sabha polls. The timing is crucial especially when the INDIA alliance has already raised the issue of caste census issue. The BJP fears that this issue can harm the party’s poll prospects in Hindi speaking states which are considered to be the strongholds of the BJP.
In such a situation, it’s crucial for the BJP to woo the big vote bank of OBCs and Yadavs who are in large numbers in Uttar Pradesh , Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and almost every Hindi speaking state.
The BJP realises the mistake of ignoring the Yadavs past and the step has angered a large vote bank. In fact, Prahlad Patel’s name was also doing the rounds for the post of Chief Minister. Such a speculation got credence when he was asked to relinquish the chair of the Union Cabinet and contest the assembly elections.
After the formation of the BJP government, Patel was seen as the frontrunner for the post of Chief Minister. But Prahlad Patel was made to sit out and Mohan Yadav was picked up. The BJP’s move came despite the fact that the Lodhi vote bank, which is considered a dedicated vote bank of BJP, may get angry with BJP. Uma Bharti, who was seen as a big Lodhi face, is already marginalised. Ignoring Prahlad Patel can increase the resentment among the Lodhi caste.
The BJP’s Yadav outreach
Through the decision, the BJP top brass and particularly Prime Minister Narendra Modi tried to tap the Yadav vote bank, who form the core of the big OBC vote bank in Hindi speaking states. The direct impact at the national level can be weakening of the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh and RJD in Bihar. The major support base of both these parties is the vote bank of Yadavs. Through this decision, BJP will try its best to dent the caste support base of SP and RJD and weaken the issue of caste census, political observers said.
Targeting Samajwadi Party’s support base in UP
In Uttar Pradesh politics, Samajwadi Party is known for its politics based on Yadavs and Muslims. The Muslim vote bank sometimes shifts towards Congress and BSP as per convenience though the Yadav vote bank goes to SP in Uttar Pradesh. According to estimates, out of the 24 crore population, Yadavs comprise about 10 percent. The vote bank of Yadav caste plays an important role in influencing the elections in about 50 districts of the state. In the last assembly elections, Samajwadi Party garnered about 85 percent of the Yadav vote bank in Uttar Pradesh. The ascension of Mohan Yadav is expected to send across a message tha Yadavs are on BJP’s welfare radar.
Yadavs form a major vote bank in Bihar
Yadav vote bank is even stronger in Bihar as compared to Uttar Pradesh. In the recently conducted caste census, Yadav caste has emerged as the largest caste among OBCs. According to the caste census data, Yadav caste has more than 14 percent vote bank in Bihar. Mohan Yadav’s rise can help BJP consolidate Yadav vote bank in Bihar.
OBC Lodhis angry with the decision
The BJP’s decision may backfire as it did not go down well with Lodhis in Madhya Pradesh. They did not want to see their leader Uma bharti, who is the tallest Lodhi leader of the Lodhi community after Kalyan Singh, sit out.
Bharti, who played an important role in increasing the support base of BJP in Madhya Pradesh, was not even made the star campaigner in Madhya Pradesh elections. On the other hand, the way Union Minister Prahlad Patel was made to contest assembly elections from Narsinghpur and then asked to resign from the post of minister and MP angered Lodhis. Lodhi vote bank is big in Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.