Launching first-ever direct attack on Israel signifies that Tehran’s actions were mere face-saving rather than targeting Israeli infrastructure and causing casualties. It was a muscle-flexing of Iranian military power paving the way for celebrations across Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq in a chest-thumping act, writes Siddthartha Alberrt Majumder
Almost two weeks after Israel struck Iran’s embassy compound in Damascus killing seven military personnel, including the Commander of its Quds force, Tehran retaliated. It launched an aerial assault at Israel from its soil, rather than exploit the military power of its proxies. An Iranian spokesperson mentioned, “We launched an operation using drones and missiles in response to the Zionist entity’s crime of targeting the Iranian consulate in Syria. The operation was carried out with missiles and drones to strike specific targets in the occupied territories.”
Inputs mention that all 185 drones and 35 cruise missiles, launched by Iran, were destroyed in flight while 103 out of 110 missiles shot down. This was on account of coordinated actions by the US, UK, France, Jordan and Israel, having had hours of advance notice, considering distances involved. The Israeli defence spokesperson mentioned that while some missiles did strike the Nevatim Airbase there were no casualties. Visuals of aircraft operations from the airbase, soon after the missile strike, were released on social media.
The Tehran regime had been under pressure to respond. The US and Israel were aware that an attack was imminent from Iranian soil. President Biden had commented, “I don’t want to get into secure information but my expectation is sooner rather than later.” Israel even stated that the attack was delayed by a day as it had yet to be approved by Iran’s highest-ranking officials. Thus, when the aerial assault was launched, it came as no surprise. Netanyahu tweeted, “We intercepted, we repelled, together we will win.”
Did Washington and Tel Aviv base their assessment on the possible timing of the attack on intelligence inputs or did Iran deliberately pass an intimation, seeking to avoid escalation, while saving face. Iran-Pakistan cross-border strikes of January this year followed a similar pattern. Iran struck, Pakistan retaliated, then diplomacy took over, ending escalation and restoring normalcy.
Neither of the two nations killed residents of the other but their own based in refugee or terrorist camps. Israel’s neighbours are joining hands to prevent the conflict from enlarging and engulfing the region. To avoid being drawn into the conflict as also restrict the US from sucking them in, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Oman and Kuwait and Qatar have prohibited Washington from using its bases in their countries as also their airspace to launch attacks on Iran. This restricts options.
Immediately after launching its attack Iran announced that it “deemed the matter (retaliation to the Damascus attack) concluded.” It added, “Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the Israeli regime, from which the US must stay away.”
This message reiterates that Tehran’s actions were mere face-saving rather than targeting Israeli infrastructure and causing casualties. It was also a display of Iranian military power. Celebrations across Iran, Palestine, Lebanon, Syria and Iraq indicate Tehran achieved its aims.
The attack has given Israel an opportunity to target Iran’s nuclear installations, a long pending intent, however it will not be easy given airspace restrictions and no US involvement. Any such attempt by Israel would escalate the conflict across the Middle East. Arab nations would be forced to close ranks with Iran.
The Iranian response can also be compared to the Balakote strike. India struck Balakote compelling Pak to react as a face saver. It retaliated by dropping dud bombs on Indian soil, while releasing Wing Commander Abhinandan to prevent an Indian escalation.